Do Packaging Claims Drive Product Performance? Evidence from the Biscuit Category in the Italian FMCG Market

This study investigates the role of packaging claims in explaining product performance in the biscuit category, a context in which front-of-pack messages may be relevant but not universally effective. Building on the idea that packaging claims act as visible and synthetic market signals, the paper examines whether they operate as independent performance drivers or as positioning signals embedded within broader brand identity strategies. The empirical analysis is based on a structured dataset of packaged biscuits in the Italian fast-moving consumer goods market, integrating product-level market performance indicators, brand identity, weighted distribution coverage, and front-of-pack claim categories. Product performance is measured through EURO per point of weighted distribution (EURO PP) and through its year-on-year variation, in order to capture both static performance efficiency and performance dynamics. A stepwise regression approach is adopted to isolate the role of packaging claims from the effects of brand identity and distribution coverage, and to test whether claim effectiveness varies across brands. The results show that some claim categories are associated with product performance when considered in isolation, but their explanatory role decreases substantially once brand effects are introduced. Interaction effects further reveal that claim effectiveness is heterogeneous across brands, while no systematic associations emerge with performance growth over time. Overall, the findings suggest that packaging claims should be interpreted less as universal drivers of market performance and more as brand-contingent positioning signals within an indulgence-oriented food category.