Assessing the Mycotoxin-related Health Impact of Shifting from Meat-based Diets to Soy-based Meat Analogues in a Model Scenario Based on Italian Consumption Data

The aim of this study was to assess the risk of replacing meat with plant-based analogues with respect to mycotoxin exposure, as a proof of concept to demonstrate the need for a proper regulatory framework for mycotoxins in meat imitates. Hence, we considered a full replacement of meat consumption with soy-based meat analogues and we evaluated the exposure to AFB1 and OTA, based on the Italian National Food Consumption Survey INRAN-SCAI 2005–2006 and the European Food Safety Authority occurrence data. The overall health impact from soy-based food consumption and a meat-free diet was quantified in terms of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in three different contamination and consumption scenarios. The substitution of meat products with soy-based imitates would prevent up to 406.2 colorectal cancer cases/year/country associated with 532 healthy years of life. However, we also determined an increased risk of liver cancer and loss of healthy life-years due to AFB1 exposure and a potential risk of renal cancer as due to an increased intake of OTA, leading up to 1208 extra cancer cases associated with the loss of 12,080 healthy life-years/country. Shifting to a plant-based diet actually eliminates a cancer risk factor such as processed meat, however, higher and unexpected risks could arise if mycotoxins are not properly regulated in plant-based meat alternatives. Taking into account the ubiquitous occurrence of mycotoxins, also in the light of climate change, and the growing trend toward plant-based meat analogues, greater importance should be given to actual food consumption trends and correlated with updated natural toxins regulations and risk assessments.