Understanding causal linkages in the post-conflict Colombia socio-ecological system

Colombia’s long-lasting internal conflict has profoundly shaped the country’s socio-ecological system, imposing relational patterns that persist beyond the 2016 peace agreement. Whether post-conflict policies can effectively achieve socially and environmentally desirable outcomes, or whether conflict-related constraints may instead generate unintended consequences, remains an open question. This study conceptualizes the Colombian socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of key social and ecological variables embedded within a conflict-related framework. Interactions among these variables as reconstructed using elicitation-based information and literature, are represented using a signed digraph. Loop analysis combined with numerical simulations is applied to assess system responses to policy interventions, including subsidized credit for capital-intensive activities and measures aimed at enhancing smallholder competitiveness and market access. Results show that persistent conflict-related mechanisms generate counterintuitive interactions between social and ecological components, with unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities that undermine policy effectiveness. Synergies among desirable objectives emerge only under limited conditions.