The realpolitik of jihad: an anatomy of transnational Islamist terrorism in East Africa

In the last three decades, East Africa has turned into a crucial arena in the fight against transnational Islamist terrorism, harbouring Al-Qa’ida’s leadership and subsequently giving rise to one of the most active organisations, Al-Shabaab. Much has been written on jihadism in the region. However, the scholarship still lacks a comprehensive historical analysis shedding light on the dynamics that have favoured its survival and development. This article fills such a gap, reviewing the evolution of transnational Islamist terrorism in East Africa from the early 1990s up to the present day. The article sheds light on the realpolitik of East African terrorism, showing how militants have consistently sought to adapt to and exploit (1) the political morphology of the region and (2) emerging tensions between local groups and national authorities to survive setbacks, expand their influence and gain supporters. The article concludes by arguing that tackling social and political fractures on the ground is of fundamental importance to effectively dismantle terror networks and fight instability in the region.