Decidere senza certezze. Precauzione, rischio e discrezionalità amministrativa nella transizione ecologica

The essay examines the role of administrative discretion in environmental decision- making in light of the growing centrality of the precautionary principle within the ecological transition. Starting from the relationship between scientific uncertainty and public authority, the analysis shows how the traditional function of discretion – understood as the balancing of competing public and private interests – is being reshaped by the need to govern complex risks characterized by uncertain knowledge and potentially irreversible effects. In this context, the precautionary principle operates not merely as an integrative criterion but increasingly as an ordering parameter of decision-making processes, influencing the acquisition of scientific expertise, the structure of reasoning, and the intensity of judicial review. The paper advances an evolutionary interpretation of the precautionary principle, not as hierarchically superior to other environmental principles – such as prevention, sustainable development, and integration – but as a functional framework for their coordination. From this perspective, precaution acts as a methodological guideline that directs administrative discretion toward anticipatory, proceduralized, and transparent decision-making models capable of managing risk within ecological transition policies. This leads to a transformation of administrative action, marked by a stronger prognostic and adaptive dimension, where the interaction between law, science, and technology becomes structural. The concluding section highlights the systemic implications of this reconstruction, particularly with regard to to the duty to state reasons, participatory procedures, and the limits of judicial review.