: By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients.
At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods / M., Mesinovic; X. C., Wong; G. S., Rajahram; B. W., Citarella; K. 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[10.1038/s41598-024-63212-7]
At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods
Mesinovic M.; Wong X. C.; Rajahram G. S.; Citarella B. W.; Peariasamy K. 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Ardiyan Apriyana; Yaseen Arabi; Irene Aragao; Francisco Arancibia; Carolline Araujo; Antonio Arcadipane; Patrick Archambault; Lukas Arenz; Jean-Benoît Arlet; Christel Arnold-Day; Lovkesh Arora; Rakesh Arora; Elise Artaud-Macari; Diptesh Aryal; Motohiro Asaki; Angel Asensio; Elizabeth A Ashley; Muhammad Ashraf; Jean Baptiste Assie; Amirul Asyraf; Anika Atique; A M Udara Lakshan Attanyake; Johann Auchabie; Hugues Aumaitre; Adrien Auvet; Laurène Azemar; Cecile Azoulay; Benjamin Bach; Delphine Bachelet; Claudine Badr; Nadia Baig; J Kenneth Baillie; J Kevin Baird; Erica Bak; Agamemnon Bakakos; Nazreen Abu Bakar; Andriy Bal; Mohanaprasanth Balakrishnan; Valeria Balan; Firouzé Bani-Sadr; Renata Barbalho; Nicholas Yuri Barbosa; Wendy S Barclay; Saef Umar Barnett; Michaela Barnikel; Helena Barrasa; Audrey Barrelet; Cleide Barrigoto; Marie Bartoli; Joaquín Baruch; Romain Basmaci; Muhammad Fadhli Hassin Basri; Denise Battaglini; Jules Bauer; Diego Fernando Bautista Rincon; Denisse Bazan Dow; Abigail Beane; Alexandra Bedossa; Ker Hong Bee; Husna Begum; Sylvie Behilill; Albertus Beishuizen; Aleksandr Beljantsev; David Bellemare; Anna Beltrame; Beatriz Amorim Beltrão; Marine Beluze; Nicolas Benech; Lionel Eric Benjiman; Dehbia Benkerrou; Suzanne Bennett; Luís Bento; Jan-Erik Berdal; Delphine Bergeaud; Hazel Bergin; Giulia Bertoli; Lorenzo Bertolino; Simon Bessis; Adam Betz; Sybille Bevilcaqua; Karine Bezulier; Amar Bhatt; Krishna Bhavsar; Claudia Bianco; Farah Nadiah Bidin; Moirangthem Bikram Singh; Felwa Bin Humaid; Mohd Nazlin Bin Kamarudin; Zeno Bisoffi; François Bissuel; Patrick Biston; Laurent Bitker; Jonathan Bitton; Pablo Blanco-Schweizer; Catherine Blier; Frank Bloos; Mathieu Blot; Lucille Blumberg; Filomena Boccia; Laetitia Bodenes; Debby Bogaert; Anne-Hélène Boivin; Isabela Bolaños; Pierre-Adrien Bolze; François Bompart; Patrizia Bonelli; Aurelius Bonfasius; Diogo Borges; Raphaël Borie; Hans Martin Bosse; Elisabeth Botelho-Nevers; Lila Bouadma; Olivier Bouchaud; Sabelline Bouchez; Dounia Bouhmani; Damien Bouhour; Kévin Bouiller; Laurence Bouillet; Camile Bouisse; Thipsavanh Bounphiengsy; Latsaniphone Bountthasavong; Anne-Sophie Boureau; John Bourke; Maude Bouscambert; Aurore Bousquet; Jason Bouziotis; Bianca Boxma; Marielle Boyer-Besseyre; Maria Boylan; Fernando Augusto Bozza; Axelle Braconnier; Cynthia Braga; Timo Brandenburger; Filipa Brás Monteiro; Luca Brazzi; Dorothy Breen; Patrick Breen; David Brewster; Kathy Brickell; Alex Browne; Shaunagh Browne; Nicolas Brozzi; Marjolein Brusse-Keizer; Nina Buchtele; Polina Bugaeva; Marielle Buisson; Danilo Buonsenso; Erlina Burhan; Aidan Burrell; Ingrid G Bustos; Denis Butnaru; André Cabie; Susana Cabral; Eder Caceres; Cyril Cadoz; Rui Caetano Garcês; Mia Callahan; Kate Calligy; Jose Andres Calvache; Caterina Caminiti; João Camões; Valentine Campana; Paul Campbell; Josie Campisi; Cecilia Canepa; Mireia Cantero; Pauline Caraux-Paz; Sheila Cárcel; Chiara Simona Cardellino; Filipa Cardoso; Filipe Cardoso; Nelson Cardoso; Sofia Cardoso; Simone Carelli; Francesca Carlacci; Nicolas Carlier; Thierry Carmoi; Gayle Carney; Inês Carqueja; Marie-Christine Carret; François Martin Carrier; Ida Carroll; Gail Carson; Leonor Carvalho; Maire-Laure Casanova; Mariana Cascão; Siobhan Casey; José Casimiro; Bailey Cassandra; Silvia Castañeda; Nidyanara Castanheira; Guylaine Castor-Alexandre; Ivo Castro; Ana Catarino; François-Xavier Catherine; Paolo Cattaneo; Roberta Cavalin; Giulio Giovanni Cavalli; Alexandros Cavayas; Adrian Ceccato; Shelby Cerkovnik; Minerva Cervantes-Gonzalez; Anissa Chair; Catherine Chakveatze; Bounthavy Chaleunphon; Adrienne Chan; Meera Chand; Christelle Chantalat Auger; Jean-Marc Chapplain; Charlotte Charpentier; Julie Chas; Allegra Chatterjee; Jonathan Samuel Chávez Iñiguez; Anjellica Chen; Léo Chenard; Matthew Pellan Cheng; Antoine Cheret; Alfredo Antonio Chetta; Thibault Chiarabini; Julian Chica; Suresh Kumar Chidambaram; Leong Chin Tho; Catherine Chirouze; Davide Chiumello; Hwa Jin Cho; Sung-Min Cho; Bernard Cholley; Danoy Chommanam; Marie-Charlotte Chopin; Ting Soo Chow; Yock Ping Chow; Nathaniel Christy; Hiu Jian Chua; Jonathan Chua; Jose Pedro Cidade; José Miguel Cisneros Herreros; Barbara Wanjiru Citarella; Anna Ciullo; Emma Clarke; Jennifer Clarke; Rolando Claure-Del Granado; Sara Clohisey; Cassidy Codan; Caitriona Cody; Alexandra Coelho; Jennifer Coles; Megan Coles; Gwenhaël Colin; Michael Collins; Sebastiano Maria Colombo; Pamela Combs; Marie Connor; Anne Conrad; Sofía Contreras; Elaine Conway; Graham S Cooke; Mary Copland; Hugues Cordel; Amanda Corley; Sabine Cornelis; Alexander Daniel Cornet; Arianne Joy Corpuz; Andrea Cortegiani; Grégory Corvaisier; Emma Costigan; Camille Couffignal; Sandrine Couffin-Cadiergues; Roxane Courtois; Stéphanie Cousse; Rachel Cregan; Charles Crepy D'Orleans; Cosimo Cristella; Sabine Croonen; Gloria Crowl; Jonathan Crump; Claudina Cruz; Marc Csete; Ailbhe Cullen; Matthew Cummings; Ger Curley; Elodie Curlier; Colleen Curran; Paula Custodio; Ana da Silva Filipe; Charlene Da Silveira; Al-Awwab Dabaliz; Andrew Dagens; Darren Dahly; Heidi Dalton; Jo Dalton; Seamus Daly; Juliana Damas; Nick Daneman; Corinne Daniel; Emmanuelle A Dankwa; Jorge Dantas; Frédérick D'Aragon; Menno de Jong; Gillian de Loughry; Diego de Mendoza; Etienne De Montmollin; Rafael Freitas de Oliveira França; Ana Isabel de Pinho Oliveira; Rosanna De Rosa; Cristina De Rose; Thushan de Silva; Peter de Vries; Jillian Deacon; David Dean; Alexa Debard; Marie-Pierre Debray; Nathalie DeCastro; William Dechert; Lauren Deconninck; Romain Decours; Eve Defous; Isabelle Delacroix; Eric Delaveuve; Karen Delavigne; Nathalie M Delfos; Ionna Deligiannis; Andrea Dell'Amore; Christelle Delmas; Pierre Delobel; Corine Delsing; Elisa Demonchy; Emmanuelle Denis; Dominique Deplanque; Pieter Depuydt; Mehul Desai; Diane Descamps; Mathilde Desvallées; Santi Dewayanti; Pathik Dhanger; Alpha Diallo; Sylvain Diamantis; André Dias; Andrea Dias; Fernanda Dias Da Silva; Juan Jose Diaz; Priscila Diaz; Rodrigo Diaz; Kévin Didier; Jean-Luc Diehl; Wim Dieperink; Jérôme Dimet; Vincent Dinot; Fara Diop; Alphonsine Diouf; Yael Dishon; Félix Djossou; Annemarie B Docherty; Helen Doherty; Arjen M Dondorp; Andy Dong; Christl A Donnelly; Maria Donnelly; Chloe Donohue; Sean Donohue; Yoann Donohue; Peter Doran; Céline Dorival; Eric D'Ortenzio; Phouvieng Douangdala; James Joshua Douglas; Renee Douma; Nathalie Dournon; Triona Downer; Joanne Downey; Mark Downing; Tom Drake; Aoife Driscoll; Murray Dryden; Claudio Duarte Fonseca; Vincent Dubee; François Dubos; Audrey Dubot-Pérès; Alexandre Ducancelle; Toni Duculan; Susanne Dudman; Abhijit Duggal; Paul Dunand; Jake Dunning; Mathilde Duplaix; Emanuele Durante-Mangoni; Lucian Durham 3rd; Bertrand Dussol; Juliette Duthoit; Xavier Duval; Anne Margarita Dyrhol-Riise; Sim Choon Ean; Marco Echeverria-Villalobos; Giorgio Economopoulos; Siobhan Egan; Carla Eira; Mohamed El Sanharawi; Subbarao Elapavaluru; Brigitte Elharrar; Jacobien Ellerbroek; Philippine Eloy; Tarek Elshazly; Iqbal Elyazar; Isabelle Enderle; Tomoyuki Endo; Chan Chee Eng; Ilka Engelmann; Vincent Enouf; Olivier Epaulard; Martina Escher; Mariano Esperatti; Hélène Esperou; Catarina Espírito Santo; Marina Esposito-Farese; João Estevão; Manuel Etienne; Nadia Ettalhaoui; Anna Greti Everding; Mirjam Evers; Isabelle Fabre; Marc Fabre; Amna Faheem; Arabella Fahy; Cameron J Fairfield; Zul Fakar; Pedro Faria; Hanan Fateena; Arie Zainul Fatoni; Karine Faure; Raphaël Favory; Mohamed Fayed; Niamh Feely; Laura Feeney; Jorge Fernandes; Marília Andreia Fernandes; Susana Fernandes; François-Xavier Ferrand; Eglantine Ferrand Devouge; Joana Ferrão; Carlo Ferrari; Mário Ferraz; Benigno Ferreira; Bernardo Ferreira; Isabel Ferreira; Sílvia Ferreira; Ricard Ferrer-Roca; Nicolas Ferriere; Céline Ficko; Claudia Figueiredo-Mello; William Finlayson; Juan Fiorda; Thomas Flament; Clara Flateau; Tom Fletcher; Aline-Marie Florence; Letizia Lucia Florio; Brigid Flynn; Deirdre Flynn; Federica Fogliazza; Claire Foley; Jean Foley; Victor Fomin; Tatiana Fonseca; Patricia Fontela; Simon Forsyth; Denise Foster; Giuseppe Foti; Erwan Fourn; Robert A Fowler; Marianne Fraher; Diego Franch-Llasat; Christophe Fraser; John F Fraser; Marcela Vieira Freire; Ana Freitas Ribeiro; Caren Friedrich; Ricardo Fritz; Stéphanie Fry; Nora Fuentes; Masahiro Fukuda; Argin G; Valérie Gaborieau; Rostane Gaci; Massimo Gagliardi; Jean-Charles Gagnard; Amandine Gagneux-Brunon; Sérgio Gaião; Linda Gail Skeie; Phil Gallagher; Elena Gallego Curto; Carrol Gamble; Yasmin Gani; Arthur Garan; Rebekha Garcia; Julia Garcia-Diaz; Esteban Garcia-Gallo; Navya Garimella; Federica Garofalo; Denis Garot; Valérie Garrait; Nathalie Gault; Aisling Gavin; Anatoliy Gavrylov; Alexandre Gaymard; Johannes Gebauer; Eva Geraud; Louis Gerbaud Morlaes; Nuno Germano; Praveen Kumar Ghisulal; Jade Ghosn; Marco Giani; Carlo Giaquinto; Jess Gibson; Tristan Gigante; Morgane Gilg; Elaine Gilroy; Guillermo Giordano; Michelle Girvan; Valérie Gissot; Daniel Glikman; Petr Glybochko; Eric Gnall; Geraldine Goco; François Goehringer; Siri Goepel; Jean-Christophe Goffard; Jin Yi Goh; Jonathan Golob; Rui Gomes; Kyle Gomez; Joan Gómez-Junyent; Marie Gominet; Alicia Gonzalez; Patricia Gordon; Isabelle Gorenne; Laure Goubert; Cécile Goujard; Tiphaine Goulenok; Margarite Grable; Jeronimo Graf; Edward Wilson Grandin; Pascal Granier; Giacomo Grasselli; Christopher A Green; Courtney Greene; William Greenhalf; Segolène Greffe; Domenico Luca Grieco; Matthew Griffee; Fiona Griffiths; Ioana Grigoras; Albert Groenendijk; Anja Grosse Lordemann; Heidi Gruner; Yusing Gu; Jérémie Guedj; Martin Guego; Dewi Guellec; Anne-Marie Guerguerian; Daniela Guerreiro; Romain Guery; Anne Guillaumot; Laurent Guilleminault; Maisa Guimarães de Castro; Thomas Guimard; Marieke Haalboom; Daniel Haber; Hannah Habraken; Ali Hachemi; Nadir Hadri; Sheeba Hakak; Adam Hall; Matthew Hall; Sophie Halpin; Ansley Hamer; Rebecca Hamidfar; Naomi Hammond; Terese Hammond; Lim Yuen Han; Rashan Haniffa; Kok Wei Hao; Hayley Hardwick; Ewen M Harrison; Janet Harrison; Samuel Bernard Ekow Harrison; Alan Hartman; Junaid Hashmi; Ailbhe Hayes; Leanne Hays; Jan Heerman; Lars Heggelund; Ross Hendry; Martina Hennessy; Aquiles Henriquez-Trujillo; Maxime Hentzien; Diana Hernandez; Jaime Hernandez-Montfort; Andrew Hershey; Liv Hesstvedt; Astarini Hidayah; Dawn Higgins; Eibhlin Higgins; Rupert Higgins; Rita Hinchion; Samuel Hinton; Hiroaki Hiraiwa; Haider Hirkani; Hikombo Hitoto; Antonia Ho; Yi Bin Ho; Alexandre Hoctin; Isabelle Hoffmann; Wei Han Hoh; Oscar Hoiting; Rebecca Holt; Jan Cato Holter; Peter Horby; Juan Pablo Horcajada; Koji Hoshino; Kota Hoshino; Ikram Houas; Catherine L Hough; Stuart Houltham; Jimmy Ming-Yang Hsu; Jean-Sébastien Hulot; Stella Huo; Abby Hurd; Samreen Ijaz; M Arfan Ikram; Carlos Cañada Illana; Hajnal-Gabriela Illes; Patrick Imbert; Hugo Inácio; Carmen Infante Dominguez; Yun Sii Ing; Elias Iosifidis; Mariachiara Ippolito; Vera Irawany; Sarah Isgett; Tiago Isidoro; Nadiah Ismail; Margaux Isnard; Junji Itai; Asami Ito; Daniel Ivulich; Danielle Jaafar; Salma Jaafoura; Julien Jabot; Clare Jackson; Nina Jamieson; Victoria Janes; Pierre Jaquet; Waasila Jassat; Coline Jaud-Fischer; Stéphane Jaureguiberry; Jeffrey Javidfar; Denise Jaworsky; Florence Jego; Anilawati Mat Jelani; Synne Jenum; Ruth Jimbo-Sotomayor; Ong Yiaw Joe; Ruth N Jorge García; Cédric Joseph; Mark Joseph; Swosti Joshi; Mercé Jourdain; Philippe Jouvet; Anna Jung; Hanna Jung; Dafsah Juzar; Ouifiya Kafif; Florentia Kaguelidou; Neerusha Kaisbain; Thavamany Kaleesvran; Sabina Kali; Alina Kalicinska; Smaragdi Kalomoiri; Muhammad Aisar Ayadi Kamaluddin; Zul Amali Che Kamaruddin; Nadiah Kamarudin; Darshana Hewa Kandamby; Chris Kandel; Kong Yeow Kang; Pratap Karpayah; Todd Karsies; Christiana Kartsonaki; Daisuke Kasugai; Anant Kataria; Kevin Katz; Aasmine Kaur; Christy Kay; Hannah Keane; Seán Keating; Pulak Kedia; Andrea Kelly; Aoife Kelly; Claire Kelly; Niamh Kelly; Sadie Kelly; Yvelynne Kelly; Maeve Kelsey; Ryan Kennedy; Kalynn Kennon; Sommay Keomany; Maeve Kernan; Younes Kerroumi; Sharma Keshav; Evelyne Kestelyn; Imrana Khalid; Antoine Khalil; Coralie Khan; Irfan Khan; Krish Kherajani; Michelle E Kho; Denisa Khoo; Ryan Khoo; Saye Khoo; Khor How Kiat; Yuri Kida; Peter Kiiza; Beathe Kiland Granerud; Anders Benjamin Kildal; Jae Burm Kim; Antoine Kimmoun; Detlef Kindgen-Milles; Alexander King; Nobuya Kitamura; Paul Klenerman; Rob Klont; Gry Kloumann Bekken; Stephen R Knight; Robin Kobbe; Chamira Kodippily; Malte Kohns Vasconcelos; Mamoru Komatsu; Isaric Collaborator Korten; Caroline Kosgei; Arsène Kpangon; Karolina Krawczyk; Sudhir Krishnan; Vinothini Krishnan; Oksana Kruglova; Deepali Kumar; Ganesh Kumar; Pavan Kumar Vecham; Dinesh Kuriakose; Ethan Kurtzman; Neurinda Permata Kusumastuti; Demetrios Kutsogiannis; Galyna Kutsyna; Konstantinos Kyriakoulis; Raph L Hamers; Marie Lachatre; Marie Lacoste; John G Laffey; Nadhem Lafhej; Marie Lagrange; Fabrice Laine; Olivier Lairez; Marc Lambert; François Lamontagne; Marie Langelot-Richard; Vincent Langlois; Eka Yudha Lantang; Marina Lanza; Cédric Laouénan; Samira Laribi; Delphine Lariviere; Stéphane Lasry; Sakshi Lath; Odile Launay; Didier Laureillard; Yoan Lavie-Badie; Andrew Law; Cassie Lawrence; Teresa Lawrence; Minh Le; Clément Le Bihan; Cyril Le Bris; Georges Le Falher; Lucie Le Fevre; Quentin Le Hingrat; Marion Le Maréchal; Soizic Le Mestre; Gwenaël Le Moal; Vincent Le Moing; Hervé Le Nagard; Paul Le Turnier; Ema Leal; Marta Leal Santos; Biing Horng Lee; Heng Gee Lee; James Lee; Jennifer Lee; Su Hwan Lee; Todd C Lee; Yi Lin Lee; Gary Leeming; Bénédicte Lefebvre; Laurent Lefebvre; Benjamin Lefèvre; Sylvie LeGac; Jean-Daniel Lelievre; François Lellouche; Adrien Lemaignen; Véronique Lemee; Anthony Lemeur; Gretchen Lemmink; Ha Sha Lene; Jenny Lennon; Rafael León; Marc Leone; Michela Leone; François-Xavier Lescure; Olivier Lesens; Mathieu Lesouhaitier; Amy Lester-Grant; Andrew Letizia; Sophie Letrou; Bruno Levy; Yves Levy; Claire Levy-Marchal; Katarzyna Lewandowska; Erwan L'Her; Gianluigi Li Bassi; Janet Liang; Geoffrey Liegeon; Kah Chuan Lim; Wei Shen Lim; Chantre Lima; Bruno Lina; Lim Lina; Andreas Lind; Maja Katherine Lingad; Guillaume Lingas; Sylvie Lion-Daolio; Samantha Lissauer; Keibun Liu; Marine Livrozet; Patricia Lizotte; Antonio Loforte; Navy Lolong; Leong Chee Loon; Diogo Lopes; Dalia Lopez-Colon; Jose W Lopez-Revilla; Anthony L Loschner; Paul Loubet; Bouchra Loufti; Guillame Louis; Silvia Lourenco; Lara Lovelace-Macon; Lee Lee Low; Marije Lowik; Jia Shyi Loy; Jean Christophe Lucet; Carlos M Luna; Olguta Lungu; Liem Luong; Nestor Luque; Dominique Luton; Nilar Lwin; Ruth Lyons; Olavi Maasikas; Oryane Mabiala; Moïse Machado; Sara Machado; Gabriel Macheda; Hashmi Madiha; Giuseppe Maglietta; Rafael Mahieu; Sophie Mahy; Ana Raquel Maia; Lars S Maier; Mylène Maillet; Thomas Maitre; Maria Majori; Maximilian Malfertheiner; Nadia Malik; Paddy Mallon; Fernando Maltez; Denis Malvy; Patrizia Mammi; Victoria Manda; Jose M Mandei; Laurent Mandelbrot; Frank Manetta; Julie Mankikian; Edmund Manning; Aldric Manuel; Ceila Maria Sant'Ana Malaque; Daniel Marino; Flávio Marino; Samuel Markowicz; Ana Marques; Catherine Marquis; Brian Marsh; Megan Marshal; John Marshall; Celina Turchi Martelli; Dori-Ann Martin; Emily Martin; Guillaume Martin-Blondel; Ignacio Martin-Loeches; Martin Martinot; Alejandro Martín-Quiros; F Eduardo Martinez; Ana Martins; João Martins; Nuno Martins; Caroline Martins Rego; Gennaro Martucci; Olga Martynenko; Eva Miranda Marwali; Marsilla Marzukie; Juan Fernado Masa Jimenez; David Maslove; Sabina Mason; Basri Mat Nor; Moshe Matan; Daniel Mathieu; Mathieu Mattei; Romans Matulevics; Laurence Maulin; Michael Maxwell; Javier Maynar; Mayfong Mayxay; Thierry Mazzoni; Lisa Mc Sweeney; Peter McCanny; Colin McArthur; Aine McCarthy; Anne McCarthy; Colin McCloskey; Rachael McConnochie; Sherry McDermott; Sarah E McDonald; Aine McElroy; Samuel McElwee; Victoria McEneany; Natalie McEvoy; Allison McGeer; Chris McKay; Johnny McKeown; Kenneth A McLean; Paul McNally; Bairbre McNicholas; Elaine McPartlan; Edel Meaney; Cécile Mear-Passard; Maggie Mechlin; Omar Mehkri; Ferruccio Mele; Luis Melo; Joao Joao Mendes; Ogechukwu Menkiti; Kusum Menon; France Mentré; Alexander J Mentzer; Emmanuelle Mercier; Noémie Mercier; Antoine Merckx; Mayka Mergeay-Fabre; Blake Mergler; Laura Merson; Tiziana Meschi ;António Mesquita; Roberta Meta; Osama Metwally; Agnès Meybeck; Dan Meyer; Alison M Meynert; Vanina Meysonnier; Amina Meziane; Mehdi Mezidi; Céline Michelanglei; Isabelle Michelet; Efstathia Mihelis; Vladislav Mihnovit; Jennene Miller; Hugo Miranda-Maldonado; Nor Arisah Misnan; Nik Nur Eliza Mohamed; Tahira Jamal Mohamed; Asma Moin; Elena Molinos; Brenda Molloy; Mary Mone; Agostinho Monteiro; Claudia Montes; Giorgia Montrucchio; Sarah Moore; Shona C Moore; Lina Morales Cely; Lucia Moro; Ben Morton; Catherine Motherway; Ana Motos; Hugo Mouquet; Clara Mouton Perrot; Julien Moyet; Caroline Mudara; Ng Yong Muh; Dzawani Muhamad; Jimmy Mullaert; Fredrik Müller; Karl Erik Müller; Daniel Munblit; Aisling Murphy; Lorna Murphy; Marlène Murris; Srinivas Murthy; Himed Musaab; Carlotta Mutti; Himasha Muvindi; Gugapriyaa Muyandy; Dimitra Melia Myrodia; Farah Nadia Mohd-Hanafiah; Dave Nagpal; Alex Nagrebetsky; Mangala Narasimhan; Nageswaran Narayanan; Alasdair Nazerali-Maitland; Nadège Neant; Holger Neb; Coca Necsoi; Nikita Nekliudov; Erni Nelwan; Raul Neto; Emily Neumann; Pauline Yeung Ng; Anthony Nghi; Duc Nguyen; Orna Ni Choileain; Niamh Ni Leathlobhair; Alistair D Nichol; Prompak Nitayavardhana; Stephanie Nonas; Nurul Amani Mohd Noordin; Marion Noret; Nurul Faten Izzati Norharizam; Lisa Norman; Anita North; Alessandra Notari; Mahdad Noursadeghi; Karolina Nowicka; Adam Nowinski; Saad Nseir; Jose I Nunez; Nurnaningsih Nurnaningsih; Dwi Utomo Nusantara; Elsa Nyamankolly; Fionnuala O Brien; Annmarie O Callaghan; Annmarie O'Callaghan; Giovanna Occhipinti; Derbrenn OConnor; Max O'Donnell; Tawnya Ogston; Takayuki Ogura; Tak-Hyuk Oh; Sophie O'Halloran; Katie O'Hearn; Shinichiro Ohshimo; Agnieszka Oldakowska; João Oliveira; Larissa Oliveira; Piero L Olliaro; Conar O'Neil; David S Y Ong; Jee Yan Ong; Wilna Oosthuyzen; Anne Opavsky; Peter Openshaw; Claudia Milena Orozco-Chamorro; Jamel Ortoleva; Javier Osatnik; Linda O'Shea; Miriam O'Sullivan; Siti Zubaidah Othman; Nadia Ouamara; Rachida Ouissa; Eric Oziol; Maïder Pagadoy; Justine Pages; Amanda Palacios; Massimo Palmarini; Giovanna Panarello; Prasan Kumar Panda; Lai Hui Pang; Mauro Panigada; Nathalie Pansu; Aurélie Papadopoulos; Paolo Parducci; Edwin Fernando Paredes Oña; Rachael Parke; Melissa Parker; Jérémie Pasquier; Bruno Pastene; Fabian Patauner; Drashti Patel; Mohan Dass Pathmanathan; Luís Patrão; Patricia Patricio; Juliette Patrier; Laura Patrizi; Lisa Patterson; Christelle Paul; Mical Paul; Jorge Paulos; William A Paxton; Jean-François Payen; Sandra L Peake; Kalaiarasu Peariasamy; Giles J Peek; Florent Peelman; Nathan Peiffer-Smadja; Vincent Peigne; Mare Pejkovska; Paolo Pelosi; Ithan D Peltan; Rui Pereira; Daniel Perez; Luis Periel; Thomas Perpoint; Antonio Pesenti; Vincent Pestre; Lenka Petrou; Michele Petrovic; Ventzislava Petrov-Sanchez; Frank Olav Pettersen; Gilles Peytavin; Scott Pharand; Ooyanong Phonemixay; Soulichanya Phoutthavong; Michael Piagnerelli; Walter Picard; Olivier Picone; Maria de Piero; Carola Pierobon; Djura Piersma; Carlos Pimentel; Raquel Pinto; Valentine Piquard; Catarina Pires; Isabelle Pironneau; Lionel Piroth; Roberta Pisi; Ayodhia Pitaloka; Chiara Piubelli; Riinu Pius; Laurent Plantier; Hon Shen Png; Julien Poissy; Ryadh Pokeerbux; Maria Pokorska-Spiewak; Sergio Poli; Georgios Pollakis; Diane Ponscarme; Jolanta Popielska; Diego Bastos Porto; Andra-Maris Post; Douwe F Postma; Pedro Povoa; Diana Póvoas; Jeff Powis; Sofia Prapa; Viladeth Praphasiri; Sébastien Preau; Christian Prebensen; Jean-Charles Preiser; Anton Prinssen; Mark G Pritchard; Gamage Dona Dilanthi Priyadarshani; Lucia Proença; Sravya Pudota; Oriane Puéchal; Bambang Pujo Semedi; Matteo Puntoni; Gregory Purcell; Luisa Quesada; Vilmaris Quinones-Cardona; Else Quist-Paulsen; Mohammed Quraishi; Maia Rabaa; Christian Rabaud; Aldo Rafael; Marie Rafiq; Gabrielle Ragazzo; Mutia Rahardjani; Ahmad Kashfi Haji Ab Rahman; Rozanah Abd Rahman; Fernando Rainieri; Giri Shan Rajahram; Nagarajan Ramakrishnan; José Ramalho; Ahmad Afiq Ramli; Blandine Rammaert; Grazielle Viana Ramos; Anais Rampello; Rajavardhan Rangappa; Ritika Ranjan; Elena Ranza; Christophe Rapp; Aasiyah Rashan; Thalha Rashan; Menaldi Rasmin; Indrek Rätsep; Cornelius Rau; Francesco Rausa; Tharmini Ravi; Andre Real; Stanislas Rebaudet; Sarah Redl; Brenda Reeve; Liadain Reid; Dag Henrik Reikvam; Renato Reis; Jordi Rello; Jonathan Remppis; Martine Remy; Hongru Ren; Hanna Renk; Anne-Sophie Resseguier; Matthieu Revest; Oleksa Rewa; Luis Felipe Reyes; Tiago Reyes; Maria Ines Ribeiro; Antonia Ricchiuto; David Richardson; Denise Richardson; Laurent Richier; Siti Nurul Atikah Ahmad Ridzuan; Jordi Riera; Ana L Rios; Asgar Rishu; Patrick Rispal; Karine Risso; Maria Angelica Rivera Nuñez; Nicholas Rizer; Chiara Robba; André Roberto; David L Robertson; Olivier Robineau; Ferran Roche-Campo; Paola Rodari; Simão Rodeia; Julia Rodriguez Abreu; Bernhard Roessler; Claire Roger; Pierre-Marie Roger; Emmanuel Roilides; Amanda Rojek; Juliette Romaru; Roberto Roncon-Albuquerque Jr; Mélanie Roriz; Manuel Rosa-Calatrava; Michael Rose; Dorothea Rosenberger; Andrea Rossanese; Matteo Rossetti; Sandra Rossi; Bénédicte Rossignol; Patrick Rossignol; Stella Rousset; Carine Roy; Benoît Roze; Desy Rusmawatiningtyas; Clark D Russell; Maeve Ryan; Maria Ryan; Steffi Ryckaert; Aleksander Rygh Holten; Isabela Saba; Luca Sacchelli; Musharaf Sadat; Valla Sahraei; Nadia Saidani; Maximilien Saint-Gilles; Pranya Sakiyalak; Leonardo Salazar; Gabriele Sales; Stéphane Sallaberry; Charlotte Salmon Gandonniere; Hélène Salvator; Olivier Sanchez; Angel Sanchez-Miralles; Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu; Gyan Sandhu; Zulfiqar Sandhu; Pierre-François Sandrine; Oana Sandulescu; Marlene Santos; Shirley Sarfo-Mensah; Bruno Sarmento Banheiro; Iam Claire E Sarmiento; Benjamine Sarton; Ankana Satya; Sree Satyapriya; Rumaisah Satyawati; Egle Saviciute; Parthena Savvidou; Yen Tsen Saw; Justin Schaffer; Tjard Schermer; Arnaud Scherpereel; Marion Schneider; Stephan Schroll; Michael Schwameis; Gary Schwartz; Brendan Scicluna; Janet T Scott; James Scott-Brown; Nicholas Sedillot; Tamara Seitz; Mageswari Selvarajoo; Caroline Semaille; Malcolm G Semple; Rasidah Bt Senian; Eric Senneville; Claudia Sepulveda; Filipa Sequeira; Tânia Sequeira; Ary Serpa Neto; Ellen Shadowitz; Syamin Asyraf Shahidan; Mohammad Shamsah; Anuraj Shankar; Shaikh Sharjeel; Pratima Sharma; Catherine A Shaw; Victoria Shaw; Rajesh Mohan Shetty; Rohan Shetty; Haixia Shi; Nisreen Shiban; Mohiuddin Shiekh; Takuya Shiga; Nobuaki Shime; Hiroaki Shimizu; Keiki Shimizu; Sally Shrapnel; Hoi Ping Shum; Nassima Si Mohammed; Ng Yong Siang; Jeanne Sibiude; Bountoy Sibounheuang; Atif Siddiqui; Louise Sigfrid; Piret Sillaots; Catarina Silva; Maria Joao Silva; Rogério Silva; Benedict Sim Lim Heng; Wai Ching Sin; Dario Sinatti; Budha Charan Singh; Punam Singh; Pompini Agustina Sitompul; Karisha Sivam; Vegard Skogen; Sue Smith; Benjamin Smood; Coilin Smyth; Michelle Smyth; Morgane Snacken; Dominic So; Tze Vee Soh; Joshua Solomon; Tom Solomon; Emily Somers; Agnès Sommet; Myung Jin Song; Rima Song; Tae Song; Jack Song Chia; Michael Sonntagbauer; Azlan Mat Soom; Albert Sotto; Edouard Soum; Ana Chora Sousa; Marta Sousa; Maria Sousa Uva; Vicente Souza-Dantas; Alexandra Sperry; Elisabetta Spinuzza; B P Sanka Ruwan Sri Darshana; Shiranee Sriskandan; Sarah Stabler; Thomas Staudinger; Stephanie-Susanne Stecher; Trude Steinsvik; Ymkje Stienstra; Birgitte Stiksrud; Eva Stolz; Amy Stone; Adrian Streinu-Cercel; Anca Streinu-Cercel; Ami Stuart; David Stuart; Richa Su; Decy Subekti; Gabriel Suen; Jacky Y Suen; Asfia Sultana; Charlotte Summers; Dubravka Supic; Deepashankari Suppiah; Magdalena Surovcová; Atie Suwarti; Andrey Svistunov; Sarah Syahrin; Konstantinos Syrigos; Jaques Sztajnbok; Konstanty Szuldrzynski; Shirin Tabrizi; Fabio S Taccone; Lysa Tagherset; Shahdattul Mawarni Taib; Ewa Talarek; Sara Taleb; Jelmer Talsma; Renaud Tamisier; Maria Lawrensia Tampubolon; Kim Keat Tan; Le Van Tan; Yan Chyi Tan; Clarice Tanaka; Hiroyuki Tanaka; Taku Tanaka; Hayato Taniguchi; Coralie Tardivon; Pierre Tattevin; M Azhari Taufik; Hassan Tawfik; Richard S Tedder; Tze Yuan Tee; João Teixeira; Sofia Tejada; Marie-Capucine Tellier; Sze Kye Teoh; Vanessa Teotonio; François Téoulé; Pleun Terpstra; Olivier Terrier; Nicolas Terzi; Hubert Tessier-Grenier; Adrian Tey; Alif Adlan Mohd Thabit; Zhang Duan Tham; Suvintheran Thangavelu; Vincent Thibault; Simon-Djamel Thiberville; Benoît Thill; Jananee Thirumanickam; Shaun Thompson; David Thomson; Emma C Thomson; Surain Raaj Thanga Thurai; Duong Bich Thuy; Ryan S Thwaites; Andrea Ticinesi ;Paul Tierney; Vadim Tieroshyn; Peter S Timashev; Jean-François Timsit; Noémie Tissot; Jordan Zhien Yang Toh; Maria Toki; Kristian Tonby; Sia Loong Tonnii; Marta Torre; Antoni Torres; Margarida Torres; Rosario Maria Torres Santos-Olmo; Hernando Torres-Zevallos; Michael Towers; Tony Trapani; Huynh Trung Trieu; Théo Trioux; Cécile Tromeur; Ioannis Trontzas; Tiffany Trouillon; Jeanne Truong; Christelle Tual; Sarah Tubiana; Helen Tuite; Alexis F Turgeon; Jean-Marie Turmel; Lance C W Turtle; Anders Tveita; Pawel Twardowski; Makoto Uchiyama; P G Ishara Udayanga; Andrew Udy; Roman Ullrich; Alberto Uribe; Asad Usman; Timothy M Uyeki; Cristinava Vajdovics; Piero Valentini; Luís Val-Flores; Amélie Valran; Ilaria Valzano; Stijn Van de Velde; Marcel van den Berge; Machteld Van der Feltz; Job van der Palen; Paul van der Valk; Nicky Van Der Vekens; Peter Van der Voort; Sylvie Van Der Werf; Laura van Gulik; Jarne Van Hattem; Carolien van Netten; Frank van Someren Greve; Gitte Van Twillert; Ilonka van Veen; Hugo Van Willigen; Noémie Vanel; Henk Vanoverschelde; Pooja Varghese; Michael Varrone; Shoban Raj Vasudayan; Charline Vauchy; Shaminee Veeran; Aurélie Veislinger; Sebastian Vencken; Sara Ventura; Annelies Verbon; James Vickers; José Ernesto Vidal; César Vieira; Joy Ann Villanueva; Judit Villar; Pierre-Marc Villeneuve; Andrea Villoldo; Nguyen Van Vinh Chau; Gayatri Vishwanathan; Benoit Visseaux; Hannah Visser; Chiara Vitiello; Manivanh Vongsouvath; Harald Vonkeman; Fanny Vuotto; Noor Hidayu Wahab; Suhaila Abdul Wahab; Nadirah Abdul Wahid; Marina Wainstein; Steve Webb; Jia Wei; Katharina Weil; Tan Pei Wen; Sanne Wesselius; T Eoin West; Murray Wham; Bryan Whelan; Paul Henri Wicky; Aurélie Wiedemann; Surya Otto Wijaya; Keith Wille; Sue Willems; Patricia J Williams; Virginie Williams; Evert-Jan Wils; Ng Wing Yiu; Calvin Wong; Teck Fung Wong; Xin Ci Wong; Yew Sing Wong; Natalie Wright; Gan Ee Xian; Lim Saio Xian; Kuan Pei Xuan; Ioannis Xynogalas; Sophie Yacoub; Siti Rohani Binti Mohd Yakop; Masaki Yamazaki; Elizabeth Yarad; Yazdan Yazdanpanah; Nicholas Yee Liang Hing; Cécile Yelnik; Chian Hui Yeoh; Stephanie Yerkovich; Touxiong Yiaye; Toshiki Yokoyama; Hodane Yonis; Obada Yousif; Saptadi Yuliarto; Akram Zaaqoq; Marion Zabbe; Gustavo E Zabert; Kai Zacharowski; Masliza Zahid; Maram Zahran; Nor Zaila Binti Zaidan; Maria Zambon; Miguel Zambrano; Alberto Zanella; Konrad Zawadka; Nurul Zaynah; Hiba Zayyad; Alexander Zoufaly; David Zucman
2024-01-01
Abstract
: By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients.
Citazione
At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods / M., Mesinovic; X. C., Wong; G. S., Rajahram; B. W., Citarella; K. 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[10.1038/s41598-024-63212-7]
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Il report seguente simula gli indicatori relativi alla propria produzione scientifica in relazione alle soglie ASN 2023-2025 del proprio SC/SSD. Si ricorda che il superamento dei valori soglia (almeno 2 su 3) è requisito necessario ma non sufficiente al conseguimento dell'abilitazione. La simulazione si basa sui dati IRIS e sugli indicatori bibliometrici alla data indicata e non tiene conto di eventuali periodi di congedo obbligatorio, che in sede di domanda ASN danno diritto a incrementi percentuali dei valori. La simulazione può differire dall'esito di un’eventuale domanda ASN sia per errori di catalogazione e/o dati mancanti in IRIS, sia per la variabilità dei dati bibliometrici nel tempo. Si consideri che Anvur calcola i valori degli indicatori all'ultima data utile per la presentazione delle domande. La presente simulazione è stata realizzata sulla base delle specifiche raccolte sul tavolo ER del Focus Group IRIS coordinato dall’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia e delle regole riportate nel DM 589/2018 e allegata Tabella A. Cineca, l’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia e il Focus Group IRIS non si assumono alcuna responsabilità in merito all’uso che il diretto interessato o terzi faranno della simulazione. Si specifica inoltre che la simulazione contiene calcoli effettuati con dati e algoritmi di pubblico dominio e deve quindi essere considerata come un mero ausilio al calcolo svolgibile manualmente o con strumenti equivalenti.