Performance-based spatial monitoring. An interpretative model for long-term shrinking medium-small Italian towns

The paper illustrates a GIS-based methodology to identify, among medium-small Italian towns, shrinking clusters characterised by homogeneous shrinking patterns in a 25-year-time frame. This methodology main goal is to act as a preliminary cognitive tool to which urban policies may refer to, providing support in the related decision-making process and encouraging efficient management of social, economic and environmental resources in small deprived contexts. The definition of the methodology foresees the following three main steps: 1) The mapping of demographic decline dynamics in a 25-year-time frame. 2) The identification of performance-based indicators which are involved in population loss in medium-small Italian towns. 3) The setting up of a performance-based interpretative scheme for classifying medium-small Italian towns in clusters having similar decline patterns. This contribution finally suggests a possible further application of the illustrated methodology as an urban planning efficiency monitoring tool, highlighting the main unsustainable trends connected to urban sprawl and to the continuous decrease in urban densities.