The onset of intrastate conflict has two requisite conditions: that prospective insurgents have an incentive to rebel, and that the state lacks the capacity to deter such a rebellion. We outline a simple rationalist argument grounded in gains from economic growth—to both individual income and state revenue—to argue that modernization has the potential to affect the likelihood of civil conflict through both of these conditions. The shift away from a rent-seeking economy affects opportunity costs for rebellion by increasing the cost of recruitment, broadening the time horizon for gain, and decreasing looting possibilities. On the state side, modernization increases state military, economic, and institutional capacity, allowing governments to deter rebellion. We construct an index of modernization from World Bank data and apply a strategic model to explore the effect of modernization on both states and rebels simultaneously. We find that the modernization process describes an arc that may increase the likelihood of unrest in the early stages, but has long-term stabilizing effects.

The Arc of Modernization: Economic Structure, Materialism, and the Onset of Civil Conflict / Chatagnier, J. Tyson; Castelli, Emanuele. - In: POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND METHODS. - ISSN 2049-8470. - 7:2(2019), pp. 233-252. [10.1017/psrm.2016.24]

The Arc of Modernization: Economic Structure, Materialism, and the Onset of Civil Conflict

CASTELLI, Emanuele
2019

Abstract

The onset of intrastate conflict has two requisite conditions: that prospective insurgents have an incentive to rebel, and that the state lacks the capacity to deter such a rebellion. We outline a simple rationalist argument grounded in gains from economic growth—to both individual income and state revenue—to argue that modernization has the potential to affect the likelihood of civil conflict through both of these conditions. The shift away from a rent-seeking economy affects opportunity costs for rebellion by increasing the cost of recruitment, broadening the time horizon for gain, and decreasing looting possibilities. On the state side, modernization increases state military, economic, and institutional capacity, allowing governments to deter rebellion. We construct an index of modernization from World Bank data and apply a strategic model to explore the effect of modernization on both states and rebels simultaneously. We find that the modernization process describes an arc that may increase the likelihood of unrest in the early stages, but has long-term stabilizing effects.
The Arc of Modernization: Economic Structure, Materialism, and the Onset of Civil Conflict / Chatagnier, J. Tyson; Castelli, Emanuele. - In: POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND METHODS. - ISSN 2049-8470. - 7:2(2019), pp. 233-252. [10.1017/psrm.2016.24]
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
PSRM Civil Peace.pdf

embargo fino al 09/06/2016

Tipologia: Documento in Post-print
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 806.77 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
806.77 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11381/2820661
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 4
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 6
social impact