Assessment of the 10-year risk of fracture in Italian postmenopausal women using FRAX®: a north Italian multicenter study

The aim of the study was to estimate the absolute risk of fracture in a sample of postmenopausal women with the Italian version of FRAX®, using femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and 3 internationally validated clinical risk factors (CRFs) (history of fragility fracture, family history of hip fracture, current smoking). We retrospectively studied 9586 women (mean age 64.1 yr) examined in three osteoporosis centers from Northern Italy over two years (2001-2002). The risk of major osteoporotic (clinical spine, hip, forearm and humerus) and hip fractures was estimated using the online version of the FRAX algorithm adapted for Italy. The median 10-year risk was 7.5% for osteoporotic fracture and 1.7% for hip fracture. 25% of subjects had a 10-year risk ≥ 12.1% for osteoporotic fracture and ≥ 4.1% for hip fracture. The median 10-year risk of fracture increased with the number of prevalent CRFs. For major osteoporotic fractures risk rose from 6.3% to 10.9%, 21.4% and 40.9% with 1, 2 and 3 prevalent CRFs, respectively. For hip fractures the corresponding figures were: 1.3%, 2.7%, 7.0% and 21.9%, respectively. However, it must be emphasized that in 2 out of 3 women, none of the CRFs examined was present and the assessment of risk was limited to age and BMD. Our data provide the first description of the effect of the combination of BMD, age and CRFs on fracture risk stratification in a large sample of Italian postmenopausal women using FRAX®. The results are a useful starting point to define criteria for the application of FRAX® in clinical practice in Italy.