An analytical methodology to estimate the potential volume attracted by a rail-road intermodal terminal

This paper introduces an analytical methodology to estimate the “potential” freight traffic volume that could be attracted by an intermodal terminal. The “potential volume” is understood to be the local road traffic share that is likely to be diverted from road to rail-road intermodality. The methodology is particularly tailored for the design and the location of a new rail-road intermodal structure. However, it could be usefully adopted either to assess the performances of an existing one, or in supporting expansion investments. The model requires freight flows of the region as input data, which should be organised in a from/to matrix. The output consists of the potential volume that could be attracted by the intermodal terminal. Outcomes are computed by means of an appropriate “affinity index”, which strives to quantify the aptitude of freight road flows to be managed through rail-road intermodal transportation, assessing the likelihood of a mode shift from road haulage to intermodality. The methodology is then tested and validated through a real case application, referring to a major Italian intermodal terminal.