Assessing the extinction risk of heterocypris incongruens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) in climate change with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

Organisms respond to climate change in many different ways and their local extinction risk may vary widely among taxa. Crustaceans from freshwater temporary ponds produce resting eggs to cope with environmental uncertainty and, as a consequence, egg banks have a fundamental role for population persistence. The egg bank dynamics of six clonal lineages of Heterocypris incongruens (Ostracoda) from Northern Italy were simulated. Clonal lineages W1 and W2 are the most common “winter ecotypes”, clonal lineages S1 and S2 are allochthonous “summer ecotypes” and clonal lineages I1 and I2 are relatively rare and generalist in terms of seasonality. Fecundity and proportion of resting eggs vary by clonal lineage, temperature and photoperiod. The clonal extinction risk was estimated in present climate conditions and under climate change. For comparison, and to assess the potential colonization of northern ponds, clonal lineages from Lampedusa Island (Southern Italy), L, were considered. Cohen’s general model was used for simulating egg bank dynamics and the extinction rate of each clonal lineage was estimated with uncertainty analysis. A 30 year simulation in present and climate change conditions was carried out. Extinction rates were lower in climate change conditions than in present conditions. Hydroperiod, hatching rate and egg deterioration rate were the critical factors that affected extinction rates. Extinction rates varied among clonal lineages. This suggests that H. incongruens might be able to have multiple responses to climate change due to its genetic diversity. In climate change conditions, W clonal lineages underwent a niche expansion, while a mismatch between photoperiod and hydroperiod might generate a detrimental effect on the phenology of summer S clonal lineages that might cause their extinction. Southern clonal lineages L, showing an intermediate extinction rate, might colonize northern temporary ponds.